📰 Table Of Contents
The Impact of Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving on Market Dynamics
The completion of Bitcoin’s fourth halving has left traders and investors speculating about the short-term market dynamics. While the spot price of Bitcoin saw a slight increase over the weekend, not much significant movement was observed immediately after the halving event.
Historical Trends Post Bitcoin Halvings
Historically, the three previous halvings resulted in a substantial surge in the spot price of Bitcoin, but this exponential growth took place approximately 50 to 100 days after the halving. If this pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin bulls may have a few more weeks to accumulate larger long positions.
Anticipated Short Squeeze After Bitcoin Halving
In the short term, analysts anticipate a potential short squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins. These alternative cryptocurrencies have been experiencing persistent negative funding rates, with some reaching as low as -100%.
QCP Trading Ideas
In light of these market dynamics, QCP suggests two trade ideas:
- Consider exploring Extended Range Knockouts (ERKOs) for a structurally bullish view on BTC.
- Build BTC long positions in the coming weeks, capitalizing on a significant discount around the 55k level.
ERKO Options Recommended by QCP
- ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k with a maximum payout of 10.52 times the investment.
- ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k with a maximum payout of 40 times the investment.
BTC Accumulator Strategy
To implement the BTC long position strategy, consider a BTC Accumulator with an expiry date of 6SEP24, providing a 20-week timeframe. The strike price is set at 55,000 USD, reflecting a discount of approximately 19.70% from the current spot price.
Market Outflows and Short-Selling Opportunities
As reported, digital asset investment products have faced another week of outflows, marking the second consecutive week of declining investor interest. Bitcoin investment products witnessed outflows of $192 million. However, few investors viewed this as an opportunity for short-selling, with short-Bitcoin strategies experiencing outflows of $0.3 million.
Ian is a cryptocurrency enthusiast blending humor with professionalism. With an engineering background and a storyteller's heart, he simplifies the blockchain world with sharp analysis and a touch of wit. At Cryptowire, he brings his unique perspective to make digital financial innovation accessible to all.
