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Bitcoin Halving: What to Expect
Bitwise Asset Management has issued a word of caution ahead of Bitcoin’s highly anticipated halving, which is set to occur on April 20. Despite the excitement surrounding this event, historical data suggests that the immediate aftermath may not be as bullish as many anticipate.
Historical Trends Post-Halving
According to Bitwise, while the month immediately following the halving typically sees a modest drop in price, the subsequent year often witnesses exponential gains. For instance, following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin experienced a meager 9% increase in the month post-halving, only to skyrocket by a staggering 8,839% over the following year.
Market Underestimates Long-Term Impact
Bitwise’s analysis suggests that the market tends to underestimate the long-term impact of halvings, focusing instead on short-term fluctuations. This sentiment is echoed by industry experts, who foresee potential challenges in the immediate aftermath of the halving.
Potential Challenges and Corrections
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, anticipates a $5-billion miner sell-off post-halving, which could exert downward pressure on the markets. Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon, believes that the anticipated rally following the halving has already been factored into current prices. Recent market indicators have raised concerns about a potential correction.
Bitcoin Pullbacks and Analyst Predictions
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted several significant pullbacks since the 2022 bear market bottom, with corrections ranging from 18% to 23%. Analyst Cold Blooded Shiller has even suggested that a 30% correction, bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around $51,000, is not out of the question.
Crypto Veterans’ Optimism
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook despite potential short-term challenges. Marszalek emphasized the positive impact of the halving in the long run, while Garlinghouse predicted a doubling of the total market value of cryptocurrencies this year.
Current Status
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $63,575, largely flat over the past day.
Ian is a cryptocurrency enthusiast blending humor with professionalism. With an engineering background and a storyteller's heart, he simplifies the blockchain world with sharp analysis and a touch of wit. At Cryptowire, he brings his unique perspective to make digital financial innovation accessible to all.
