Researcher Who Accurately Forecasted Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Peak Now Takes a Bearish Stance

Bitcoin Pre-Halving Rally Predictions

10x Research Founder Markus Thielen, known for his accurate predictions, recently shifted his stance on risk assets like technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. In a February 2024 interview, Thielen highlighted Bitcoin’s historical performance ahead of halving events, citing strong inflows into US-based ETFs as a positive sign for traditional investors.

Bitcoin’s Performance and Predictions

• Historically, Bitcoin rallies an average of 32% in the 60 days leading up to a halving event.
• RSI indicators suggested accelerated uptrends, with Bitcoin expected to reach $74,611 by April 11, 2024.
• Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,000 on March 14th, aligning closely with the prediction.

10x Research’s Market Outlook

Expressing bearish sentiments on risk assets, 10x Research recently sold off its tech stocks and retained only select crypto coins in its portfolio. Thielen cited concerns about a potential price correction driven by persistent inflation and rising bond market yields.

Influence of Inflation and Bond Yields

• Persistent inflation and rising 10-year treasury yields above 4.5% signal a critical moment for risk assets.
• The Federal Reserve’s rate cut tool to combat inflation has seen reduced market expectations for cuts this year.
• The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.61% in April, impacting high-risk assets like tech stocks and crypto.

Challenges for Bitcoin ETFs

Despite initial excitement following the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, 10x Research noted a decline in hype and inflows into these investment products. The upcoming bitcoin halving event and its impact on supply and demand dynamics are expected to influence the market.